One of the key components of weather forecasting are trends. When consecutive model runs consistently report a storm is coming, confidence in the storm increases. When one run forecasts sun and the next run forecasts snow, confidence decreases.
Twenty Mile to the North, so much fun doing so many things up there.
As March arrived the models started to forecast a storm for the night of the 6th. Each model run confirmed the storm, and even started to increase its size. There was a catch, too much snow and the stability balance would tip. When I went to bed at midnight on the 6th it still wasn't snowing at Hatcher, and the radar showed the moisture way down the Cook Inlet. Were the model trends wrong?
We warmed up in Common Bowl, Matt deemed it a success.
I woke up at 2 AM to check the Independence Mine webcam. Drifts were already forming: windslabs would be a problem. At 6 AM, Independence mine had 8 inches of new snow and the radar and webcams confirmed that heavy orographic precipitation was still in full affect at Hatcher.
Beginning to feel better about the snowpack, we jumped over to Hippy Bowl.
Hatcher was out of the cards, I decided to go to work. Fortunately, Matt convinced me to get out of town on Sunday. With an uncertain forecast, we headed for Turnagain Pass, not sure what we would find. Hippy Bowl was better than Common Bowl, and more importantly, no wind affect. Obviously, Tincan Proper was next
Given a smooth bed surface, there would be moving snow. We picked a long spine to shed the snow away from us. I dropped first, watching my slough cascade beside me.
Matt brought up the rear. The dude is an athlete, these days he rides 10 days a year, might as well be 100, I love watching him go.
A look back at Proper.
With a brinner potluck to attend, Matt and I decided to call it a day. But not without a bit of daydreaming about the Library and Kickstep.